Source: John Newell for Streetwise Reports 03/30/2020
Technical analyst John Newell looks back at the gold to silver ratio through history.
When we don’t understand the present, we can turn to the past. It is believed the natural ratio in the earth’s crust is ~10 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold.
Back in 3000 BC in Mesopotamia (modern day Turkey, Iraq, Iran), silver and gold were used to enable trade at a rate of 5 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold. For about 2,000 years, from 1670 B.C. to 432 AD, the rate was between a low of 9 to 1 in 59-44 BC to a high of 18 to 1 in 422 AD.
For the next 1,000 years from 527 to1453, the price was roughly 15 to 1. For the next three centuries the ratio was a low of 10.75 to 1 to a high of 15.52 to 1.
When the United States passed its first coinage law in 1792, the ratio was fixed at 15 to 1 but at that rate gold was considered undervalued and disappeared from circulation, so to correct the situation Congress moved the ratio to 16 to 1 in 1834.
At that rate gold was slightly overvalued and silver undervalued and silver coins began to disappear and were dropped from the list of coins by the Act of February 12, 1873, or the “Crisis of 1873,” and so thereafter the U.S. was on the Gold Standard, which became law in the Gold Act of March 14, 1900. (Hint: two 60 year cycles to today).
In 1919 the ratio was 15.20 to 1; by 1932 the ratio was up to 72.27 to 1 or about five times.
John Newell is a portfolio manager at Fieldhouse Capital Management and president and CEO of Golden Sky Minerals Corp. He has 38 years of experience in the investment industry acting as an officer, director, portfolio manager and investment advisor with some of the largest investment firms in Canada. Newell is a specialist in precious metal equities and related commodities and is a registered portfolio manager in Canada (advising representative).
Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news
Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of John Newell and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. John Newell is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. John Newell was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
Additional Disclosures and Disclaimer from John Newell, Fieldhouse Capital Management
Legal Notice / Disclaimer:
This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.
John Newell has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified.
John Newell makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of John Newell only and are subject to change without notice. John Newell assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission.
Furthermore, I, John Newell, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or for lost profit, which you may incur because of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these pages will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these pages are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
Hypothetical and historical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical and historical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical and historical performance results is that they are generally presented with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical and historical trading may not present the financial risks and returns for future trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Disclaimer: This Publication is protected by Canadian and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user’s personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted, or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means without prior written permission. This publication is proprietary.
Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of an investment program.
Chart provided by the author.