Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports 01/13/2020
Technical analyst Clive Maund examines the effects of recent geopolitical events on the precious metals markets.
It has been a week of surprises since the last updates were posted. First, I had not expected Iran to retaliate following the murder of its top general by a U.S. drone—but it did, despite the risks, as it was politically necessary to assuage the extreme anger of its population who demanded revenge.
The next surprise was that Israel and the U.S. did not use this retaliation as an excuse to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, which is what they really want to do. As we know, the long-term goal of Israel and the U.S. is to subjugate Iran, and they will not stop until they attain this goal.
And so it goes on. It appears that there was a bit of theater involved in Iran’s retaliation, as it clandestinely signaled its intentions which allowed U.S. forces to get out of harm’s way. Perhaps U.S. forces did not then launch a blitzkrieg out of consideration for this courtesy.
Regardless of the muddled and unpredictable fundamental situation, which included the accidental downing of a passenger plane by Iranian defensive missile batteries, the charts allowed us to make a reasonably accurate prediction regarding what was likely to happen to the gold price. The call for a near-term top in the precious metals (PM) sector made on the site on Monday looked incorrect the following evening, when gold suddenly surged about $35 on news of the retaliatory Iranian missile strike. But when it later became apparent that there were, strangely, no U.S. troop casualties and no further action against Iran, gold and silver reversed dramatically and dropped quite hard, as the tension then looked set to ease, at least over the short-term.
Technically what happened is that gold pushed quite deep into heavy overhead resistance, becoming very overbought at a time when COTs were showing extreme readings, and was thus vulnerable to a sudden reversal. The action around this time illustrates an important point, which is that when gold rises due to sudden geopolitical developments, the gains tend not to stick.
What really matters, and is the big driver for gold at this time, is the insane monetary expansion that is going on, which is being undertaken in a desperate attempt to postpone the systemic implosion that is baked in for as long as possible. As we have already observed in these updates in recent weeks, gold is already in a raging bull market against a wide variety of currencies, and it won’t be all that long before it’s in a raging bull market against the dollar too, as the Fed sets the stage for hyperinflation.
There are two big and compelling reasons for the U.S. government to tank the dollar. One is that it makes U.S. exporters more competitive, and the other is that it can use the mechanism of inflation to wipe clean its colossal debts by paying them off in devalued coin, printing vast amounts of money to pay them off, and in the process legally swindling the foolish creditors out of their dues.
This is precisely what the Weimar Republic in Germany did in 1923 to eliminate the unfair reparations imposed by the Treaty of Versailles, which were unfair also because Germany didn’t start the First World War—it was tricked into it by the Allies, because the British Empire was scared of Germany’s rising industrial and military might and wanted to destroy it. . .100-plus years of propaganda lies about Germany being responsible for the First World War notwithstanding.
We’ll look at the dollar a little later. First we will review gold’s charts, starting with the 10-year chart.
On the 10-year chart we see that gold is now a bull market, even against the dollar, and is currently challenging the heavy resistance arising from the 2011–2013 top area. The second attack on this resistance in the space of few months got further because of the Iran crisis. If this cools any more short term, it will probably lead to gold settling into a trading range before it mounts a more successful attack on this resistance.
A point to note here is that while the resistance up to the 2011 highs, in the $1,800 area, looks like a major obstacle, it’s not such a big deal as many think, given the rate at which the dollar is now being debased.