The gold miners’ stocks are still grinding sideways after last month’s Fed-rate-hike scare. This technical basing is laying the foundation for this interrupted gold-stock upleg to rebound. Today’s low gold-stock prices relative to the metal they mine will amplify that coming upside. The leading gold-stock index was just slammed back down to the support of its secular valuation uptrend, portending a big mean reversion higher.
The gold stocks were consolidating high, digesting sharp young-upleg gains, just a month ago. Then the latest FOMC meeting spawned a sharp gold plummeting, which the gold stocks leveraged like usual. The Fed didn’t do anything, keeping its hyper-easy zero-interest-rate policy and $120b of monthly quantitative-easing money printing in place indefinitely. There were no hints at all of rate hikes or tapering QE bond buying.
But top Fed officials’ individual projections of future federal-funds-rate levels, which the Fed chair himself warned to ignore, were slightly more hawkish than expected. Just a third of these guys thought the Fed might need two quarter-point rate hikes way out into year-end 2023. Who cares, right? That may as well be an eternity away in financial-market terms. Yet it still scared gold-futures speculators into selling hard.
In just three trading days after that nothing burger FOMC decision, gold plummeted 5.2%! In the week including that hawkish Fed dot plot, specs dumped an enormous 24.0k gold-futures long contracts while adding 4.9k new short ones. That made for the equivalent of 89.7 metric tons of gold selling, far too much too fast to absorb. So the leading GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF collapsed 9.2% in that same span.
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