The outlook for zinc appears bullish, says Stefan Ioannou of Haywood Securities, spearheaded by mine closures, dwindling production and the dearth of replacement projects. This looming supply gap could mean increased zinc prices by the end of the year, explains Ioannou in this interview with The Gold Report, a prospect that would bode well for one of the few pure-play zinc producers, as well as for an Australian explorer that may be on the cusp of a world-class discovery.
The Gold Report: Many analysts are cautiously optimistic about the price of zinc. Are you?
Stefan Ioannou: Yes, we definitely have a good medium- to longer-term outlook for the metal, probably sooner to the upside than for other base metals and commodities. A number of key larger-scale mines have shut down over the last few years. The most recent one was the Century mine in Australia, which produced about 4% of the world’s zinc supply. It shipped its last concentrate early this year. In addition, Glencore International Plc (GLEN:LSE), Nyrstar (NYR:BSE) and others have made significant production cutbacks. In all, over 10% of world production has come off, so there’s definitely a supply issue looming.
“Caribou expands Trevali Mining Corp.’s geographic footprint and positions the company as the marquee, pure-play zinc producer in the space right now.”
Looking to the flip side of the equation—new mines coming on to replace that lost production—there really haven’t been any major discoveries or developments in recent times. So we have north of 10% coming off and nowhere near that in new production coming on. A fundamental supply gap is forming, which stands to materialize by late this year, as inventory levels are drawn down to critical levels. Significantly lower year-over-year and spot zinc concentrate treatment charges arguably provide a …read more