Bob Moriarty discusses the reasons behind the Brexit vote and why governments need to change.
The world is going to pay for Brexit.
In a good way.
One of people’s favorite fantasies is to believe they are smarter than your average concrete block when we all know bricks appear brilliant compared to humans.
A few years, back one of a hoard of new gold sites sent me an email pronouncing that they were having a price of gold prediction contest. They were going to those they considered the top 150 commentators have predict the price of gold at a point six months later. I puffed up at once realizing that at least someone in the world understood my brilliance. Actually I probably should have asked if I was #1 on their list or a fill in for #150 after five of their list had died in the last week.
They asked for my prediction. I gave them my answer. Months later they posted the results. I was the only person to get it dead right. And before you start believing that that should move me up to at least #2 or #3 on the list if not #1, my answer was that only an idiot would believe he could predict with great accuracy the price of any commodity that far in the future. There are simply too many variables.
Sure, you say, but someone else of the 149 who made guesses must have gotten pretty close. And while that’s true, it’s also utterly meaningless. You could have 150 people predict a coin toss for 20 times and someone would probably get it dead right. That wouldn’t make the person brilliant; if 150 people guess about something such as a coin toss, the odds suggest someone will get it right. That’s not brilliant prediction, that’s nothing more …read more