The 'Trump Trade' Is Too Optimistic

Tom Beck of Portfolio Wealth Global believes the “Trump Trade” is overblown and recommends investors bulletproof their holdings.

The number one lesson I learned from Warren Buffett is that the market is not who to look to for advice.

There are more than 150 million Americans who own stocks, and 140 million of them will end up either losing money or making just enough to keep up with inflation.

The fact is that average investors are horrible at managing funds.

I want you to learn not to look to the market as a guide to making decisions, but only to principles that are proven to work.

Lior Gantz and I founded Portfolio Wealth Global in order to bulletproof your holdings by enriching your skill sets.

The stock market is, in essence, a market of stocks.

This means that as investors, we can choose to look at the market of stocks as expensive overall and search for specific bargains within it.

At the moment, the S&P 500 is made up of many overpriced stocks, which, if made private, would require 25-30 years in order to recoup your original investment with the proceeds.

This is a group of mediocre investments, at best.

Look at the Bears-Bears Ratio, which is an incredibly valuable contrarian indicator.

I learned in 2001 that when the headlines are pessimistic, it’s time to become aggressive, and I learned in 2008 that when euphoria occurs, it’s time to exit most of my trades, hold only my core assets, and invest in other discounted assets elsewhere.

What’s most visible in this chart is that moments of extreme pessimism have historically been the ultimate times to purchase stocks.

Today, I am warning you that prices could easily correct 15%-20%, and rising interest rates usually speed up market corrections.

It now takes the average American more paychecks than ever to participate in the stock market.

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