Part II – What Commodities and Transportation Are Telling Us

        March 6, 2019 In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place. This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED).  This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations.  First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017.  We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index. We believe this Key Bottom in both the Commodities Index and the Smart Cash Index reflect a dramatic pricing shift that took place at that point in time.  Although Commodities have yet to rally beyond upper high ranges, we can see the Smart Cash Index rallied to incredible new all-time highs.  The rally that started near the end of 2016 in the Smart Cash Index was likely the result of a “Capital Shift” that we have discussed extensively in the past.  With commodity prices staying historically low and an increase in economic optimism, capital shifted away from “commodity-based sectors” and into “technology and biotech sectors”.  Now, it appears this rally has run its course and a new … Continue reading

Goldman predicts commodities will soar in 2019

Goldman Sachs is forecasting returns of about 17 per cent in the coming months, describing the current situation as unsustainable Soybean plants in Illinois. Goldman says in the agriculture space to go long Chicago soybeans, short on corn.Daniel Acker/Bloomberg Commodity bull Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is undaunted by the sell-off in raw materials and is forecasting returns of about 17 per cent in the coming months, describing the current situation as unsustainable and touting this week’s G20 meeting in Buenos Aires as a potential turning point.“Given the size of dislocations in commodity pricing relative to fundamentals — with oil now having joined metals in pricing below cost support — we believe commodities offer an extremely attractive entry point for longs in oil, gold and base,” analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in a report. The note listed its top 10 trade ideas for 2019, including a rebound in Brent as OPEC cuts supply. Raw materials have been battered in November on a toxic cocktail of drivers, with crude sinking amid speculation there’s too much supply, metals getting hit on concern growth is slowing, and investors fretting about the outlook for the trade war between the U.S. and China. This week, leaders from the G20 gather in Argentina, offering presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping a chance to address their trade spat, while Russia’s Vladimir Putin has an opportunity to address crude policy with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “Many of the political uncertainties weighing on commodity markets have a significant … Continue reading