The Next Silver Bull May have Already Started

The Next Silver Bull May Have Already Started By Laurynas Vegys Silver is down 7.1% this year. Will this weakness persist? To find out, let’s look at the key factors in the silver market this year. Like gold, silver fell as the US dollar rose on the back of expectations that the Fed will hike rates. World demand for physical silver fell 4% in 2014, largely due to a record 19.5% drop in investment demand. Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did not see big liquidations in 2014. ETF holdings grew by 1.4 million ounces and recorded their highest year-end level at 636 million ounces. The first two factors helped push silver 19.9% lower last year. That’s more than gold or any other precious metal fell. Despite this, silver production rose 5% in 2014. That added to the pressure on prices. Why did miners produce more silver when prices were falling? Because of: By-product metal. Around 75% of the silver mined is a by-product at gold or base metal mines. These producers will keep mining silver, almost regardless of price. Reduced cash costs. The primary silver producers have cut costs since they peaked in 2012. The main way miners do that is by boosting production to achieve economies of scale. Bull market hangover. Precious metals were in a major bull market from 2001 to 2011. Producers built a lot of mines in response. Nobody wants to pull the plug on a new mine that’s losing money if they think prices will go … Continue reading

Gold War: China’s SECOND Announcement of More Gold Reserves – Bullion Bulls Canada

By Jeff Nielson    August 17, 2015 China is angry (at the West) that much is clear. China has now made a series of “shocking” announcements, and made dramatic moves with its economy, two acts which are totally atypical of the general approach from Beijing. China generally acts in a very discrete, understated manner, which does notattract attention to its policies, both political and economic. The source of its anger is easy enough to identify, the economic terrorism perpetrated against its economy by Western bankers, and discussed previously. What is far less easy to discern is its precise intent in making these overt and (for China) bold moves. In other words; China is “sending a message”. The task for the Alternative media is to decipher that message. A review of recent events is necessary, as this chain grows longer and longer: 1) China makes a voluntary disclosure of an additional 600 tonnes of gold as part of its official reserves. The announcement was generally considered “surprising”, and some commentators have suggested this was a provocative gesture directed at the West (or more properly, retaliation for the terrorism referred to above). 2) China “suspends” the trading accounts of dozens of U.S. traders, in relation to the (extremely suspicious) bubble-and-crash in China’s stock market. It publicly announces it is investigating these traders for “manipulating” China’s stock market (illegally) using the banksters’ infamous computerized trading algorithms – the same abomination/crime which has been regularly discussed in previous commentaries. 3) China makes a “shocking” announcement of an official devaluation of the renminbi … Continue reading

Martin Armstrong – Gold Set To Rise To $5000.00

usawatchdog.com APRIL 13, 2015   Published on Apr 12, 2015 Renowned financial analyst Martin Armstrong says you can forget about the U.S. dollar crashing in value. Armstrong contends, “No, that’s absurd. The euro is in terrible shape. The yen is in terrible shape, and honestly, you can’t park money in yuan or Russian rubles, yet. I mean, let’s be realistic here, but eventually–yes.” Armstrong says the bond market is a different story as the Fed is going to be forced to raise rates. He contends just a few percentage points in rising rates are going to cause big losses and big changes. Armstrong predicts, “People will be losing huge money. We are looking at a few percentage points, and you are going to blow the national debts of all these countries way out of whack, and that’s what’s going to force political change.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics.com. … Continue reading

The Titanic Sinks At Dawn

Posted on March 19, 2015 by Gary Christenson TheDeviantInvestor.com What Titanic?  The RMS Titanic, or any of the following: A titanic quantity of derivatives – say 1,000 Trillion dollars. A derivative crash was at the center of the 2008 market meltdown.  It could happen again since there is now more debt, leverage, and risk than in 2008. A titanic accumulation of debt – global debt is approximately $200 Trillion. Global population is about 7,000,000,000 so there is about $28,000 in debt per living human being.  If global debt were backed by all the gold mined in the history of the world, an ounce of gold would back $36,000 in debt.  Gold currently sells for less than $1,200.  Gold is undervalued and there is an excess of debt. A titanic increase in debt in the past decade. Official US debt increased by over $10,000,000,000,000 in the past ten years.  What did the US gain from the increase of $10 Trillion in debt?  Are debt accumulation and expense policies materially different in Europe or Japan?  Was the debt used to create productive assets or was it just flushed down the toilet into non-productive expenditures?  THE BENEFIT IS GONE, BUT THE DEBT REMAINS.  This debt accumulation policy is neither good business nor sustainable. A titanic bond bubble. Since interest rates are currently at multi-generational lows, or 700 year lows in Europe, or perhaps all-time lows, that strongly suggests a bubble in bonds.  Would you buy a bond from an insolvent government knowing the … Continue reading

The 10th Man: Socialism Is Like a Nude Beach—Sounds Like a Great Idea Until You Get There

By Jared Dillian  I’ve been following the activities of Syriza for a long time. They started putting up big numbers in the polls in Greece three or four years ago.Syriza has a message that’s very popular with Greeks: Screw Germany. The word they use to describe what’s happened to Greece during the period of time since the debt crisis is “humiliation.” To be fair, if you owe a lot of money to someone, it can be tempting to give them the finger. When Greece’s debt was restructured, it was done in such a fashion that none of the debt was really forgiven, but the maturities were extended far out in the future. Since Greece doesn’t grow (for structural, demographic, and cultural reasons), this is known as extend and pretend. Everyone knew, even back then, that the only hope Greece would have to avoid default would be whatever ability they had to refinance. Greece has been struggling under the yoke of this debt over the last few years, and the Greeks are sick of being serfs. So Europe gets the bird, although deep down, Greece doesn’t really want to drop out of the euro. They get a lot of benefits from being part of the Eurozone, namely purchasing power and low interest rates. So naturally, having and eating their cake simultaneously is the goal. But Alexis Tsipras (the head of Syriza) will threaten to not pay to get what he wants, and it will be interesting to see if Germany will call his … Continue reading

2015 Outlook: What You Really Need to Know

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst In the January issue of BIG GOLD, I interviewed 17 analysts, economists, and authors on what they expect for gold in 2015. Some of those included what we affectionately call our Casey Brain Trust—Doug Casey, Olivier Garret, Bud Conrad, David Galland, Marin Katusa, Louis James, and Terry Coxon. The issue was so popular that we decided to reprint this portion. I think you’ll find some very insightful and useful reading here (click on a link to read his bio)… Doug Casey, Chairman Jeff: The Fed and other central banks have kept the economy and markets propped up longer than you thought they could. Has the Fed succeeded in staving off crisis? Doug: I’m genuinely surprised things have held together over the last year. The trillions of currency units created since 2007 have mostly inflated financial assets, creating bubbles everywhere. There’s an excellent chance that the bubble will burst this year. I don’t know whether it will result in a catastrophic deflation, extreme inflation, or both in sequence. I’m only sure it will result in chaos and extreme unpleasantness. Jeff: Are we still going to get rich from gold stocks? Or should we face reality and start exiting? Doug: The fact so many people are discouraged with gold and mining stocks is just another indicator that we’re at the bottom. Gold and silver are now, once more, superb speculations. And I think we’ll see some 10-to-1 shots in gold stocks—if not this year, then 2016. I can afford to … Continue reading

Join Our Team For Greater Gains

January 25, 2015 Dudley Pierce Baker All of my subscribers are considered by me to be part of our team here at http://CommonStockWarrants.com. If any subscribers see something of interest in the stock warrant arena, I want to hear from you via email to support@commonstockwarrants.com, and indicate in the subject line: Feedback  As a subscriber, if you are great at technicals, charts, hedging strategies, timing the markets, etc., again, I want to hear from you. After feedback is received I may share content with other team members based upon my personal discretion. I believe that this new approach will be for the greater good as we are all in these markets together. To my current subscribers, I value your participation and support of our unique services, some of you for many, many years. If you are not a current subscriber I encourage you to join our team now. Not familar with stock warrants? Read my previous article, How to trade with warrants, originally posted on FuturesMag.com. There are many great opportunities with stock warrants and I see great volitility in the markets for all sectors perhaps culminating in substantially higher prices over the next several years and we look for the peak in 2017. Dudley Pierce Baker Founder-Editor http://CommonStockWarrants.com Join us at CommonStockWarrants.com for the only listing and details on all stock warrants trading in the United States and Canada. All industries and sectors are represented and many opportunites for investors. Don’t overlook this unique opportunity. Visit our website now. … Continue reading

Goldman’s 2015 forecast for gold

Steve Saville January 25, 2015 Goldman’s 2015 forecast for gold Early last year we gave banking behemoth Goldman Sachs (GS) credit for looking in the right direction for clues regarding gold’s likely performance, which is something that most gold bulls were not doing. In November we again gave them credit, because even though we doubted that the US$ gold price would get close to GS’s $1050/oz target their overall analysis had been more right than wrong. It was clear that up to that point the US economy had performed better than we had expected and roughly in line with the GS forecast, which was the main reason that gold had remained under pressure; albeit, not as much pressure as GS had anticipated. But that was last year. This year it’s a different story. This year, GS’s gold market analysis begins on the right track by stating that stronger US growth should support higher real US interest rates, which would be bearish for gold. Although we expect that the US economy will ‘tread water’ at best and that real US interest rates will be flat-to-lower over the course of this year, GS’s logic is correct. What we mean is that IF the US economy strengthens and IF real US interest rates trend upward in response, there will be irresistible downward pressure on the US$ gold price. However, the analysis then goes off the rails. After mentioning something that matters (the real interest rate), the authors of the GS gold-market analysis then try … Continue reading

How to trade with warrants

Editors Note: Still a good read on stock warrants. The warrants used in the example are no longer trading, but this still serves as a good example of the performance of stock warrants. By Dudley Pierce Baker April 1, 2010 Many traders are familiar with call options and have spent many years and study hours learning strategies to employ them in the markets. Warrants, however, are still a little known and little-understood investment vehicle, even after 80 years of availability. In 1949, Sidney Fried wrote “The Speculative Merits of Common Stock Warrants.” In it, he captures the profit potential of these instruments. He states: “Common stock warrants turn in the most spectacular performance of any group of securities…. The speculative potentialities of common stock warrants are enormous…. With potential profits and potential losses so great it is a source of wonder that so little understanding of the nature of common stock warrants exists not only among the investing public who might be forgiven this sin, but even among the many professionals of the business upon whom the public depends for information and guidance.” Sidney Fried’s observation in 1949 remains relevant today. Most investors and analysts do not take the time to understand the potential leverage — and the consequences — that warrants can bring to a portfolio. Here, we’ll take a closer look at warrants from the trader’s perspective, compare them to call options and discuss when call options or warrants would be the most appropriate investment vehicle to accomplish a … Continue reading

What the Strong Dollar Does to Yellow and Black Gold and Why We’re Seeing Green

Editors Note: This is still a very timely read based upon what has been since October 2014 to the price of the USD, gold and oil. October 20, 2014 Frank Holmes The United States is doing better than it has in years. Jobs growth is up, unemployment is down, our manufacturing sector carries the rest of the world on its shoulders like a wounded soldier and the World Economic Forum named the U.S. the third-most competitive nation, our highest ranking since before the recession. As heretical as it sounds, there’s a downside to America’s success, and that’s a stronger dollar. Although our currency has softened recently, it has put pressure on two commodities that we consider our lifeblood at U.S. Global Investors: gold and oil. It’s worth noting that we’ve been here before. In October 2011, a similar correction occurred in energy, commodities and resources stocks based on European and Chinese growth fears. But international economic stimulus measures helped raise market confidence, and many of the companies we now own within these sectors benefited. Between October 2011 and January 2012, Anadarko Petroleum rose 58 percent; Canadian Natural Resources, 20 percent; Devon Energy, 15 percent; Cimarex Energy, 15 percent; Peyto Exploration & Development, 15 percent; and Suncor Energy, 10 percent. Granted, we face new challenges this year that have caused market jitters—Ebola and ISIS, just to name a couple. But we’re confident that once the dollar begins to revert back to the mean, a rally in energy and resources stocks might soon follow. Brian Hicks, … Continue reading