The Curse Of PDAC (2019) One Day Early

By Dudley Pierce Baker Founder – Editor Common Stock Warrants Junior Mining News Are you superstitious? Seems this ‘curse’ appears every year as investors, mining executives, newsletter writers, etc. prepare for the big event – The Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada Convention (PDAC) PDAC started today March 3 and runs through March 6 in Toronto, Canada. Sometimes the mining sector is rallying just before the convention but in 2019, gold and the miners have been slowly declining the last week or two, but on Friday, March 1st, gold took a big hit and was down $20 to close at $1293. Silver also sold off and was down .39 to close at $15.19. Of course this seems most years to temper the enthusiasm of all attendees and it now 2019 will not be any different. In 2011 the Financial Post had an article on the curse: “The annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada Convention might be the most anticipated event of the year for the global mining community, but it hasn’t always been the most rewarding one for investors. The TSX Venture exchange, home to a slew of junior miners, has tended to outperform in the months leading up to the convention but drastically underperform in the months after.” In 2016 – Can The Market Survive the PDAC Curse? (Kitco.com) “I think we have seen things move pretty hard in one direction so it makes sense to see a pullback,” said Brent Cook, author of the newsletter Exploration insights. … Continue reading

Weekly Bulletin: The Rally of 2016—Over or Just Getting Going?

  BULLETIN October 10, 2016 Weekly Bulletin: The Rally of 2016—Over or Just Getting Going? Dear Speculators, Last week’s 4.5% retreat in gold prices hit gold stocks hard. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dropped about 11.5% and the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) about 13.5%. This share price action is normal: Resource stocks always move with high leverage to the underlying commodities. What may seem abnormal, but has been par for the course for some years, is for the paper gold market to overreact to verbal testing of the waters by the Fed. Nothing has actually changed. Still, paper traders in New York reacted to a few hints from Fed members as though they’d dropped a hornet’s nest in their midst. We’ve seen this so many times it’s no surprise, but it still makes us shake our heads. Remember: Initial rate hike target for this year: 4 Revised rate hike target for this year: 2 Actual rate hikes this year: 0 And what happened when the Fed did raise interest rates, ever so timidly, last December? Mainstream markets tanked in January. Precious Metals took off for what is still one of their best years in recent memory. So if I say I see the current correction as a buying opportunity, don’t dismiss it as me just being a perma-bull on precious metals. I’m not. I’ve been warning of the potential for near-term weakness for some time. I’ve been insisting that we take profits and go risk-free whenever we can … Continue reading

Own this sleeper stock before April 30

From Our Friends at Casey Research: Louis James, the chief metals and mining investment strategist at Casey Research, has found an exciting near-term opportunity… It’s a deeply undervalued mining company is about to surprise the market with a HUGE announcement. It’s scheduled to start producing gold for the first time very soon—a watershed moment that could ignite a run on shares. Yet, despite this tremendous potential, shares of this company are trading for less than book today. This is the chance to invest in an advanced-stage producer at a dramatic discount, just before its true value is realized. The timing couldn’t be better… The upside is so great that he expects those who invest before April 30—before this company announces it’s in production—could at least DOUBLE their money. Click here for all the details of this incredible opportunity.  … Continue reading

A Cure for Metals Investor Malaise

A Cure for Metals Investor Malaise By Louis James Markets fluctuate. Sectors cycle. Investors love and hate these facts, but we all know that if it were not so, it would be impossible to buy low and sell high. The problem, of course, is that no one can time the market consistently. That makes it hard to know when low is low enough to make buying a likely one-way street and when it’s high enough to make selling a stroke of genius. But this is a good thing: if it were easy, anyone could do it, everyone would try, and there’d be no profit in it. It is the very fact that it’s hard—that it takes true contrarian guts to bet against the herd and buy low, and buck the trend and sell high—that makes extraordinary profits in rational speculation possible. Still, hard is hard, and many would-be speculators end up buying high, when “everyone” says a market sector will keep rising, and selling low, when “everyone” hates the sector precisely because it has become objectively undervalued. And therein lies the key for maintaining one’s contrarian courage: price and value are not the same thing. When price is objectively less than value, it’s a fair bet that wherever the bottom is (just ahead or just behind), it’s close enough to count as time to buy low. When price is objectively greater than value, it’s a fair bet that wherever the top is, money in the bank today is better than … Continue reading

Will Gold Win Out Against the US Dollar?

Will Gold Win Out Against the US Dollar? By Louis James It is an essential impossibility to solve problems created by excess debt and artificial liquidity with more of the same. That’s our credo here at Casey Research, and the reason why we believe the gold price will turn around and not only go higher, but much, much higher. While fellow investors around the world may not agree with gold-loving contrarians like us, they are buyers: gold is up in euros and almost everything else, except the dollar. The dollar’s rise has been strong and seems all but unstoppable. But look at it in big-picture terms, as in the chart below, and ask yourself how sustainable the situation is. I’m skeptical of reading too much into such charts. A peak like the one in the early 1980s would certainly take the USD much higher, and for several years to come. But still, this is an aberration. It’s not the new normal, but rather the new abnormal. More to the point, gold hasn’t collapsed since the dollar began its latest surge last July. Just look at this one-year chart of gold vs. the US dollar. The dollar is up sharply (in EUR, as a proxy for everything-not-the-dollar and for comparability to the chart below), but gold is only moderately down. Gold has been trading almost sideways over the last year. That might seem like damnation by faint praise, but it’s critically important. With the USD skyrocketing and commodities plummeting, gold should be … Continue reading

Why Aren’t These Investors Worried About The Gold Price?

  Why Aren’t These Investors Worried About The Gold Price? By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst Have you noticed that some gold investors don’t seem very concerned about the current behavior of gold? While the price remains weak and range-bound, some gold investors don’t seem worried about it at all. The natural reaction to an asset you own losing a third of its value, with seemingly little motivation to move higher, is cheerless and maybe even depressing. So why aren’t they? Are they out of touch? Perhaps have nothing at stake? Are they the kind of investors that would go down with the ship? Or do they know something we don’t? Gold’s Cycles The resource markets are well known for moving in cycles, probably more than most other markets. Raging bull market, crippling bear market, repeat. This includes gold and silver. Yes, catalysts can impact the price along the way—a big discovery, government interventions, and good ol’ supply and demand. But the context that determines how the price ultimately performs in a given period is where we are in the cycle. Cycles never repeat with the same length or breadth, but they distinctly boom and bust, over and over again. The data doesn’t tell us exactly when gold’s next upcycle will get underway, nor how big it will be, but it does tell us this: another bull cycle is coming. We charted the major cycles for gold and silver from 1975—when gold again became legal to own in the … Continue reading

Reality Always Wins… But Never on Schedule

Reality Always Wins… But Never on Schedule By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist “Expect the worst and you won’t be disappointed” is true enough, but it’s a miserable way to go through life. For investors, expecting the worst is paralyzing, a reason to do nothing. But when a market gets beaten up the way the natural-resource sector has been over the last few years, pessimism comes to dominate the chatter in boardrooms, blogs, and cocktail parties the way mold takes over a shower. It’s a blight. “There are no buyers left in the market; it will take years to recover.” “There’s no financing available, so everything will grind to a halt for years to come.” “Don’t step on that black spot.” Recent experience in the resource sector has been so bruising that the wounded have turned to pessimism as a psychological defense, to feel wise and experienced, or at least a little less foolish. An upbeat assessment wouldn’t just risk more money, it would risk more pain. What Is Opinions are plentiful, so rather than offering one more, let me summarize what I know for certain: price and value are related, but they often diverge. The essential investment formula is “Buy low, sell high.” What makes that more than a truism is that price and value often move in different directions—but not forever. Price is a wandering dog that eventually comes home to value. Hidden in the wreckage of today’s beaten-up resource market are stocks you can … Continue reading

Your Video Recording of Casey’s GOING VERTICAL Is Ready

Click here to watch GOING VERTICAL  ((http://vertical.caseyresearch.com/go/uicpp-2/CSW)) Dear Reader, Franco-Nevada co-founder and chairman Pierre Lassonde has been buying mining stocks for his own portfolio again since last October: “[The] gold stocks—just like in 2001—are at absolute rock bottom. In fifteen years, they have not been so low. So I think there’s a historical opportunity, a once-in-a-generation opportunity, right now.” And Rick Rule, founder and chairman of Sprott Global Resource Investments, says in a few years, “people will call this the good old days.” What they—and the other six guest stars of Casey Research’s just aired online event GOING VERTICAL—agree on is that it’s time to prepare your portfolio if you want a shot at vertical gains once the mining sector recovers. Even the major gold producers are so undervalued that they could rise 150% – 200%. But the best of the best junior miners, the survivors of the bloodbath, are poised to generate returns of up to 1,000% or more. Click here to watch the video recording of GOING VERTICAL  ((http://vertical.caseyresearch.com/go/uicpp-2/CSW)), with its all-star cast: Pierre Lassonde… Bob Quartermain… Ron Netolitzky… Doug Casey… Frank Holmes… Rick Rule… Jeff Clark… and get one of Louis James’ favorite stock picks with vertical potential. Sincerely, Dudley Pierce Baker Founder-Editor http://CommonStockWarrants.com http://JuniorMiningNews.com … Continue reading

How to Get Struck by Lightning

How to Get Struck by Lightning By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist Two M&A deals have already delivered paydays for investors in junior mining stocks this year: Goldcorp’s half-billion-dollar purchase of Probe Mines in Canada, and Tahoe Resources’ billion-dollar acquisition of Rio Alto Mining, a Peruvian gold producer. Now the arrival of a new, well-capitalized bidder for mining properties—X2 Resources—has raised prospects for more blockbuster deals like last year’s $3-billion takeover of Osisko Mining by Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold. X2—a still-private UK company headed by Mick Davis, former CEO of mining giant Xstrata—has raised $5.6 billion to buy up “blue chip” assets in the mining sector. Given Xstrata’s pedigree as a base metals company, I don’t expect X2 to go stalking any of our favorite gold exploration juniors—or even base metals juniors, for that matter. The company is more likely to buy deposits and operations from major mining companies that are looking to simplify and focus their businesses. I have some guesses as to which properties will appeal the most to X2, but even if I’m right, those guesses wouldn’t be easy for investors to profit from. Suppose X2 lands a great deal for itself, taking a prize asset off the hands of a big mining company fighting reduced margins. That might be good news for X2, but it’s not a public company you can invest in, so you’re not invited to the party. For the seller, it’s an unhappy fire sale, nothing for shareholders to … Continue reading

Doug Casey on ISIS, Gold, Oil, and What to Expect in 2015

By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist Today’s feature is a special treat: a peek into the brain of one of the most successful speculators of all time. In what follows, Doug Casey talks to Louis James about what to expect in 2015. Doug weighs in on today’s most important issues, including ISIS, oil, Putin, and the stock market. He even sticks his nose out to make a bold call on gold. This (usually subscriber-only) content originally appeared in The Casey Report. Enjoy! Louis James: It’s been a long, eventful quarter since we last spoke, Doug. What’s most on your mind as 2014 draws to a close and we look ahead to 2015? Doug Casey: Let’s start with gold, since that’s the main focus we’ve had for so long. The Swiss gold reserve referendum just went down in flames, of course, and that was a big disappointment to many. L: Really? I don’t know anyone who was surprised. Doug: Well, surprise and disappointment aren’t the same thing. I’m constantly disappointed by how stupid people are, but I’m never surprised by it. There were early signs of support for the measure, but the powers that be mounted an immense propaganda campaign against it, and they succeeded. I hear that the balance sheet of the Swiss central bank has expanded faster than that of any other central bank in the world— L: Whoa—that would explain a lot. Doug: Yes. Relying on the Swiss franc to preserve your capital today is like relying on Swiss banks to preserve your privacy. Only fools … Continue reading